As the holy month of Ramadan is around the corner, the Pakistan Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) has issued a forecast for the visibility of the crescent based on scientific assessments, astronomical calculations, and modern observational data.

The country’s space agency stated in its analysis that the new moon for Ramadan will occur on February 28 at 5:45 PST. However, the visibility of the crescent depends on key factors such as the moon’s age, its angular separation from the sun, altitude at sunset, and atmospheric conditions.

It added that the moon’s age at sunset would be approximately 12 hours and moon-sun angular separation would be about 7 degrees, whereas, the moon’s altitude at sunset would be around 5 degrees. Therefore, there is no possibility of crescent visibility even with optical aid.

The likelihood of a moon sighting on February 28 in Pakistan is extremely low given these scientific parameters. Consequently, Sha’ban is expected to complete 30 days, and the first day of fasting will likely be observed on March 2.

In Saudi Arabia, the new moon is also expected to be born on February 28, 2025.

However, due to the moon’s position relative to the horizon, and atmospheric clarity, the crescent is expected to be visible leading to the commencement of Ramadan on March 1. In Pakistan, however, it will begin a day later.

According to astronomical models, the Shawwal moon will be visible on March 30, indicating that Eid ul Fitr will likely to be observed on March 31, 2025, in Pakistan.

Since the unaided-eye observation of the crescent moon is a religious obligation for determining the start of the holy month, the Central Ruet-e-Hilal Committee will examine testimonies from across the country and formally announce the official commencement of this year’s Ramadan.

Earlier this month, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) also predicted that the first day of fasting in Pakistan is expected to fall on March 2.

The holy month, which is observed with religious fervour and zeal, will see millions of Pakistanis along with billions of Muslims around the world observing a fast from dawn till sunset.

Like many other countries, Ramadan, in Pakistan, is marked by increased charity and public food drives with the people establishing roadside stalls for people returning to their homes in the evening.