Since the UAE deregulated fuel prices in 2015, monthly rates have generally followed global oil market trends. With October’s prices due to be announced by September 30, motorists are wondering whether fuel costs could fall next month.
While the official numbers are not yet confirmed, recent trends in global oil markets offer some clues about what to expect.
What UAE motorists can expect
Oil prices have risen this month. Brent crude is over $68 a barrel, and US oil is above $64. Prices are being pushed up by global tensions, including US-Russia issues and OPEC+ supply concerns.
US crude stockpiles fell last week, adding more price pressure on oil globally, while diesel prices in Europe have jumped after disruptions in Russian supply.
On the other hand, global supply factors could keep a lid on increases. Iraq is restarting exports from its Kurdistan region, potentially adding 230,000 barrels per day back to the market. Higher OPEC+ production in September also offsets some of the supply risks.
For UAE drivers, this means fuel prices could remain steady or rise slightly next month, but sharp increases are less likely unless geopolitical tensions intensify or supply is unexpectedly disrupted.
